Across the globe, the strategic environment is deteriorating. Conflict in the Middle East continues and has escalated with direct US involvement, Russia grinds forward in a brutal war of attrition in Ukraine and in our own region, the Chinese Communist Party continues its sweeping military build-up and coercive pressure on its neighbours.

 

These are not disconnected events. They are symptoms of a more dangerous era where authoritarian regimes are increasingly willing to test the resolve of open societies and the strength of alliances.

 

One of the lessons from recent months is clear: the United States helps those who help themselves. After Israel struck Iranian-backed targets, the US followed with its own strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. It was a coordinated demonstration of consequence, only delivered due to demonstrable capability from a close ally.

It’s crucial we support Israel and the United States in their actions and disappointing the government took so long to do so. But the US response must shape how Australia thinks about our own alliance. The US has underwritten our security for more than 70 years but in today’s world, the alliance must evolve from a legacy we inherit to a responsibility we carry.

 

The Chinese Communist Party has rapidly expanded its military presence, increasing its naval fleet, missile forces, and cyber capabilities. It has not renounced the use of force in the Taiwan Strait and is using its growing military strength to reinforce grey-zone pressure to undermine regional sovereignty.

In response, the US has shifted toward a doctrine of denial: making any attempt at coercion or conflict too costly to succeed and preventing it outright if necessary.

 

Australia must be part of that collective deterrence. That means making it clear we would stand with the US in the event of a Taiwan contingency not with rhetoric, but with serious capability and commitment that means any use of force is destined to fail.

 

Some call that escalation, but the truth is, it is the only path to peace. Deterrence through denial requires capability to prevent an attack, yet Australia is falling behind. Our Navy is shrinking in the face of regional expansion, we produce no guided weapons, recruitment is collapsing and projects face constant delays or reviews. 

 

With this objective, a defence budget of 2% of GDP is not credible. We need a clear, costed pathway to 3% of GDP. But spending more alone is not enough. Every dollar must be spent better so we can maximise capability and readiness.

 

The promise of AUKUS is real but it’s at risk. The US submarine industrial base is overstretched and delivery will require Australian support. We must co-invest in US shipyard expansion and rapidly scale our own capacity which means finalising the AUKUS training pipeline, building sovereign maintenance yards, and preparing for domestic nuclear regulation.

This requires making decisions. It’s been almost three years since both sides of politics agreed Australia would need an east coast base to support AUKUS submarines and yet the Albanese Labor Government still hasn’t chosen a location. This is not what urgency looks like.

But this isn’t just about submarines. It’s about whether we can deliver for the alliance when it matters most.

 

Some say pursuing sovereignty means going it alone, but the truth is, sovereignty is what earns alliance support. In Washington, the mood is changing. The strategic environment dictates a reality: allies will need to stand on their own two feet.

If Australia faces attacks on our critical infrastructure and supply chains, we cannot be entirely reliant on others to respond rapidly and with force.

The opportunity is there for Australia to expand on our US alliance, not just asking the US to defend us, but to be an anchor of stability in the region. But that opportunity must be backed by substance.

 

It also needs to be backed by relationships. It is absolutely essential that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese meets with President Trump to map the path forward. The AUKUS review may or may not be a pivotal milestone in the relationship and the alliance, but the evolving posture of the US means direct engagement and advocacy for the alliance is now more important than ever.

 

Anthony Albanese should be seizing every opportunity. The fact it’s been almost seven months since the President officially took office and our Prime Minister is yet to secure a face-to-face meeting raises serious concerns about the state of the relationship.

 

Recently I joined the crew of the USS America as it sailed through Sydney Heads and berthed at Garden Island, on its way to joint exercises with the ADF. At 45,000 tonnes, with amphibious forces, fixed-wing aircraft and several thousand personnel aboard. USS America is not just a symbol of US strength, it is a reminder of what serious preparedness looks like. That level of capability doesn’t happen overnight. It takes investment, foresight and political will.

Australia must now find that same will before it’s too late. The world is shifting and the era of post–Cold War stability is ending. The question is whether Australia will rise to the moment or hope that others will carry the weight.

 

ENDS.